Framework 20: Gartner Hype curve

The Hype Cycle (more accurately, a Hype curve) is a graphic representation of the adoption and maturity of particular technologies. The term was coined by Gartner, who seem to have used it since about 1995.

From the Wikipedia page: “hype cycles … characterize the over-enthusiasm or “hype” and subsequent disappointment that typically happens with the introduction of new technologies. Hype cycles also show how and when technologies move beyond the hype, offer practical benefits and become widely accepted.”

Gartner note that Hype Cycles should be used “to get educated about the promise of an emerging technology within the context of their industry and individual appetite for risk.” Gartner analysts Jackie Fenn and Mark Raskino have produced a book (Amazon link, unaffiliated) explaining how to use the tool and the methodology behind it.

Emerging technologies, July 2009. Source: Wikimedia Commons

The Wikipedia page notes that various criticisms have been made of the hype cycle, namely that ” it is not a cycle, that the outcome does not depend on the nature of the technology itself, that it is not scientific in nature, and that it does not reflect changes over time in the speed at which technology develops. Another is that the “cycle” has no real benefits to the development or marketing of new technologies and merely comments on pre-existing trends”. Despite these criticisms, it remains a well-used concept.

Also worth reading: technology readiness level and the work of the economist Carlota Perez.

FA Rating

Completeness of vision: As it is applied to technology or new media trends, all of the above criticisms apply.

Ability to execute: I actually use the concept more as a descriptor of my own learning process than anything else. I find it helps to be aware that excitement over discovering a new thing is often followed by a dip and that this in itself precedes me being able to effectively use the new knowledge. But maybe that’s just me.

Overall rating: niche player